Market Correction Trades [NBC: 6-01-2011]
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Wednesday June 1 2011 1:36 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_market_correction
A United States housing market correction is a market correction or ‘bubble bursting’ of a United States housing bubble; the most recent began following a national home price peak first identified in July 2006. Because realty trades in illiquid markets relative to financial assets like common stock, timely valuation lags true values from three months to a year. Certain markets, including San Diego and Detroit, peaked as early as November 2005. A real estate bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local, regional, national or global real estate markets. A housing bubble is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until unsustainable levels are reached relative to incomes, price-to-rent ratios, and other economic indicators of affordability. This in turn is followed by a market correction in which decreases in home prices can result in many owners holding negative equity, a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property. Based on the historic trends in valuations of U. S. housing, many economists and business writers have predicted a market correction, ranging from a few percentage points, to 50% or more from peak values in some markets, and, in spite of the fact that this cooling has not affected all areas of the U. S. , some have warned that it could and that the correction would be ‘nasty’ and ‘severe’. Chief economist Mark Zandi of the research firm Moody’s Economy. com predicted a ‘crash’ of double-digit depreciation in some U. S. cities by 2007–2009. Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research was the first economist to identify the housing bubble, in a report in the summer of 2002. NAR chief economist David Lereah’s Explanation of ‘What Happened’ from the 2006 NAR Leadership ConferenceThe booming housing market halted abruptly for many parts of the U. S. in late summer of 2005, and as of summer 2006, several markets faced the issues of ballooning inventories, falling prices, and sharply reduced sales volumes. In August 2006, Barron’s magazine warned, ‘a housing crisis approaches’, and noted that the median price of new homes dropped almost 3% since January 2006, that new-home inventories hit a record in April and remained near all-time highs, that existing-home inventories were 39% higher than they were just one year earlier, and that sales were down more than 10%, and predicted that ‘the national median price of housing will probably fall by close to 30% in the next three years . . . simple reversion to the mean.’ Fortune magazine labeled many previously strong housing markets as ‘Dead Zones;’ other areas were classified as ‘Danger Zones’ and ‘Safe Havens.’ Fortune also dispelled ‘four myths about the future of home prices.’ In Boston, year-over-year prices dropped, sales fell, inventory increased, foreclosures were up, and the correction in Massachusetts was called a ‘hard landing’. The previously booming housing markets in Washington, D. C. , San Diego, California, Phoenix, Arizona, and other cities stalled as well. Searching the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) shows that in summer 2006, the for-sale housing inventory in Phoenix has grown to over 50,000 homes, of which nearly half are vacant (see graphic). Several home builders revised their forecasts sharply downward during summer 2006, e. g. , D. R. Horton cut its yearly earnings forecast by one-third in July 2006, the value of luxury home builder Toll Brothers’ stock fell 50% between August 2005 and August 2006, and the Dow Jones U. S. Home Construction Index was down over 40% as of mid-August 2006. CEO Robert Toll of Toll Brothers explained, ‘builders that built speculative homes are trying to move them by offering large incentives and discounts; and some sdate = 22 August 2006 | url=http://www. marketwatch. com/tools/quotanxious buyers are canceling contracts for homes already being built.’ Homebuilder Kara Homes announced on 13 September 2006 the ‘two most pr
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